Evil Leadership – the leader and at least some followers commit atrocities. They use pain as an instrument of power. The harm done to men, women, and children is severe rather than slight. The harm can be physical, or psychological, or both.*
There is no doubt or dispute that, in keeping with the above definition, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is an evil leader. To skirt the threat of being weakened or overthrown because of protests associated with the Arab Spring, since 2011 he has come down so hard on the Syrian people that these are the results.
- A long-running civil war, between pro-democratic insurgents on the one side and Assad and his loyalists on the other.
- Approximately a half million Syrians dead.
- Approximately half of Syria’s total population (about 21.3 million) displaced from their homes.
- Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees and asylum seekers.
- Approximately 90% of Syrians living below the poverty line.
- Destruction or impairent of Syria’s infrastructure, including roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals.
- Approximately 15 million people in need of emergency aid. (A number that was exacerbated by the recent earthquakes.)
Human Rights Watch summarized the situation:
“While the Syrian government, with its allies’ support, has regained significant territory using tactics that violate the laws of war, areas under its control also are rife with abuse. Security services arbitrarily arrest and torture hundreds, and millions are going hungry due to the government’s diversion of aid and failure to equitably address the crippling economic crisis.”
In a better world the man who presided over this already thirteen-year-long catastrophe – President Assad – would long ago have been toppled from within. Or, failing that, he would have long ago, and he would indefinately remain, an international pariah. Exiled permanently from the community of nations. But no such luck on either count.
After all the murder and mayhem, Assad and his strong-willed wife, Asma al-Assad, continue to reside in the presidential palace in Damascus. (It was built by his father, Hafez al-Assad, who immediately preceded the incumbent, and was himself president of Syria for nearly 30 years.) After all the murder and mayhem Russia remains an enduring and reliable ally, a partner in crime. (“In Syria,” David McCloskey wrote, “Russia created a foundational myth, twisting the war’s history to serve its own ends, and to justify its brutal military campaingn.”) And, after all the murder and mayhem, Assad’s neighbors in the Middle East are preparing to welcome him again into their midst. While for a time Assad and his enablers were shunned in the region, it appears that time is past.
The shift back to business as usual began slowly, in 2018, when the United Arab Emirates reestablished diplomatic ties with Syria. Now, as the geopolitics of the Middle East have been reordered – for example in a deal brokered by China’s President Xi Jinping, Saudi Arabia and Iran have reestablished diplomatic ties – the region is increasingly open to Syrian inclusion.
To be clear, there is no agreement yet on how to proceed. A meeting of Arab foreign ministers held just yesterday in Dubai revealed that different leaders of different countries hold different views. But this handwriting is on this wall. As the Saudi foreign minister remarked in February, there is growing regional consensus that isolating Syria is not working. Which is another way of saying that Bashar al-Assad will soon be rewarded by being reintegrated.
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for not enough people to do not enough good.
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*This definition is in Barbara Kellerman, Bad Leadership: What It Is, How It Happens, Why It Matters (Harvard Business School Press, 2004).
