Did your eyes well up when you saw that handshake? You know which one. The one we witnessed yesterday – Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping shaking hands like the oldest and dearest of friends. I don’t know about you. But their declaration of affection near melted my heart. Two dictators finding common cause. Lovely.
On January 5 I wrote the “leaders of the year,” last year, were autocrats. It was the autocrats who had a banner 2021 while their democratic counterparts struggled. The pattern continues. It cannot be good for the United States – or for that matter any democratic country anywhere in the world – when sworn enemies of democracy make common cause.
A joint statement issued this week by Russia and China accused the U.S. of stoking the earlier protests in Hong Kong – and now of destabilizing Ukraine. What else is new? Autocrats ganging up on democrats to protect their interests, this time Russia in Europe, especially in East Europe. This time China in Asia, not so much anymore Hong Kong, already under its thumb, but Taiwan, presumably next in line for a Chinese takeover.
The newly cozy relationship between the leaders of Russia and China is being set in an historical context, with the focus on Putin who thought it good idea to place 100,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border. This is being seen as his attempt to turn back the clock, to the heyday of the Soviet empire, when one of the Soviet Socialist Republics was Ukraine.
But there’s another historical context that’s far more pertinent, much more relevant. It goes back to the time of Mao Zedong and Joseph Stalin, both arch communists who bonded over what for a time they perceived as their shared interests. While Mao was in the wilderness, a Chinese Communist fighting the Chinese nationalists, Stalin was his role model. A revolutionary leader who was the quintessential communist – and who had triumphed over impossible odds to, along with his earlier comrades, Lenin foremost among them, transform Russia. So when Mao finally came to power in China in 1949, having defeated his enemies after a long and difficult struggle, he was only too happy to ally himself with Stalin.
In 1950 the two leaders signed a pact between their two countries: the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance. But, the good will between the two men, Mao, and Stalin, did not last long. Within a decade their relationship deteriorated – as did their alliance.
The marriage between Putin and Xi is exactly like the one between Stalin and Mao. Born not out of affection but out of convenience. Still, so long as it lasts, the tie between Moscow and Beijing will be nettlesome and, potentially, dangerous. If Americans care at all about their place in the world they, we, will have no choice but to keep a close eye on the happy couple.