Leader Longevity

There ought to be a law. I don’t just mean a U.S. law. I mean an everywhere law. A law in China as Canada, in Russia as Argentina as Venezuela. Moreover, I don’t just mean a law in government. I mean a law in business – and in every other entity arranged hierarchically.

The law pertains to age and to time served. So, it would have a Part A, and a Part B, and it would look like this:

  • Part A: No leader anywhere, of any group or organization of any kind, may serve over the age of 80.
  • Part B. No leader anywhere, of any group or organization of any kind, may serve for longer than 12 years.

The arguments for such a law are almost self-evident. People like power and when they have it, they don’t usually want to give it up. Some stay on long past their sell-buy date, well past when they have the requisite mental and physical vigor. Others stay on long past when they have ideas that are new and fresh, well past when they are imaginative and innovative. And still others stay on long past when they can connect with those who are younger, especially with those who are younger not just by one generation but by two.

This last is especially important at a time when robotics are near certain to wipe out large numbers of blue-collar jobs. And at a time when Artificial General Intelligence is near certain to wipe out large numbers of white-collar jobs. Hard even for 50-year-old leaders to connect with followers more than half their age – not to speak of leaders who are 60, 70, and even 80 years old.  

Does advanced age have advantages? Of course. 50-, 60-, and 70-year-old leaders have assets – traits, characteristics, experiences, bodies of knowledge – that leaders half their age do not. So, I am not arguing that older leaders are per se inferior. All I am arguing is that they do not serve either indefinitely or into their dotage.   

Leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el Sisi are all over the age of 70 and they have all held power for between ten and twenty-five years. Corporate leaders like Jamie Dimon and Bob Iger are similarly long-lived. Dimon is almost 70 years old and has served as CEO of JPMorgan for approximately two decades. Iger is just under 75 years old and has served as CEO of Disney for approximately two decades.  

Each of these long-lived leaders remains in many ways impressive. By many measures Putin, Xi, Erdogan and el-Sisi have been and remain leaders who are extraordinarily effective. The same can be said of Iger and, especially, Dimon. Moreover, their legacies will endure – their impact on their countries and companies has been that great.

Contrast this though with the American military. Though Americans’ trust in the military is not as high as it used to be, say a generation ago, it still ranks far higher in our estimation than most other American institutions. For example, in 2023, 60% of Americans trusted the military “a great deal or quite a lot,” whereas only a scant 26% said the same of the presidency.

Is it pure coincidence that in the U.S. military mandatory retirement of all generals and flag officers is 64? Is it pure coincidence that this can be extended to age 66 only under exceptional circumstances? Is it pure coincidence that this can be extended to age 68 only on the orders of the president?

No. No. And no.

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