It’s been reported that corporate leaders around the world are increasingly concerned about possible war in Taiwan. That China will attempt to take over Taiwan by force. While this threat seems not to be imminent, only a leader who is a fool would ignore the several warning signs. These signs should be read not only abroad but at home, by leaders within Taiwan not just by leaders without. They include:
- China’s recent takeover of Hong Kong, which originally was promised decades more of independent rule.
- China’s increasing displays of militarism, including stunts such as flying warplanes in close proximity to Taiwan.
- China’s shift from authoritarianism to totalitarianism, President Xi Jinping having by now established total control and brooking no display of dissent.
- China’s alliance (for the moment) with Russia.
- Russia’s unforeseen and entirely unprovoked war against Ukraine – a reminder if any were needed of how in an instant the world can change.
Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China. It is democratically ruled and thinks of itself as an independent country. Trouble is it is not similarly seen by the People’s Republic of China – the PRC, mainland China – and certainly not by Xi who not only is president but head of the once again all-powerful Chinese Communist Party. Xi sees Taiwan not as the Taiwanese do, but as an upstart and a renegade. A breakaway province that does now and always has properly belonged to China – his China.
Xi Jinping has ruled China for a decade. He shows not the slightest sign of surrendering even a smidgeon of power. In fact, he is constantly questing for more. Given the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, leaders the world over with any interest in Taiwan are well advised to pay attention.