Viktor Orban has been Prime Minister of Hungary for sixteen years. For most of this time he governed the country, or ruled it, not with an iron fist but with a heavy hand. He was an autocrat or, if you prefer, an illiberal democrat or, if you prefer, a kleptocrat or, if you prefer, a crony capitalist. He was in any case a right-wing leader who by every western account was corrupt as well as inept; was chummier with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump than with those of Kier Starmer and Emmanual Macron; and was more of a destroyer of democratic institutions than a protector of them.
So, in the weeks before yesterday’s national elections liberals both within Hungary and without had three major concerns, First, would Orban win yet another term as prime minister? Second, if he lost, would he lose by a large margin or by a small one? (The second would allow him more easily to defy the result.) And third, if he lost, even if decisively, would he agree to go or would he fight his defeat?
For at least the last ten years Orban’s leadership was unwavering and unrelenting both at home and abroad. At every turn he made clear that he was no friend of Europe, or of the West generally, or of any Hungarian who was opposed to his person, his politics, or his policies. Moreover, for most of his time in office his people, his followers, most Hungarians, were content to go where he led. Or, if they were not, they were not so malcontent as actively to resist him.
Yesterday this changed – in a big way. Orban was not just defeated at the polls by his opponent, Peter Magyar. Orban was defeated in a landslide. He was defeated by enormous numbers of people who previously were willing to follow his lead, but willing to do so no longer.
For Hungarians – and for others who closely watched – one could however argue that yesterday’s biggest surprise was not what Hungarian voters did, but what their prime minister did. Instead of resisting the outcome or even defying it, Orban acknowledged his defeat rather early and relatively graciously.
A large part of the high anxiety shared in recent years by the numberless Americans who not only intensely dislike President Donald Trump but who intensely fear him – fear above all that he will do permanent damage to America’s democratic political system – is first that he will rig the November 2026 and 2028 elections and second that even if he and his fellow Republicans are defeated by the electorate, they will not quit their posts.
Hard to believe that I’m writing this. But we might have hit on a moment in which Hungarians, including Orban, are our leaders and we the American people, including Trump, are their followers. Notice that I write “might.”