In recent days two of the world’s most powerful leaders emerged from their man-caves – which could be pure coincidence. But I think not. I think it not by chance that China’s President Xi Jinping is out and about again after spending nearly three years largely in isolation, in his case on account of covid. Nor do I think it by chance that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is out and about again after laying low for the better part of this year, in his case on account of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
What then do the two men have in common? What has prompted them to show their faces again now, after long stretches mostly in hiding? Failure – the answer is failure.
It’s impossible to exaggerate the wretched effects of President Xi’s zero-covid policy. It has already been a humiliating political disaster. It has already been a humiliating economic disaster. And in the coming months it could well be in addition a public health disaster.
Similarly, it is impossible to exaggerate the wretched effects of President Putin’s war on Ukraine. It has also been in virtually every way a disaster, in this case including a military one that when the war was launched was widely considered, including within Russia, inconceivable.
How then to get out of their respective holes? Given what has happened in China, and given that covid in China is likely to get worse before it gets better, how might Xi show he remains king of the hill? And, again, somewhat similarly, given what has happened in Ukraine, and given the war in Ukraine is likely to get more costly before it gets less costly, how might Putin show he remains king of the hill? In both cases the answer has been the same – Xi and Putin each decided they would snatch the spotlight and stride the stage.
China’s president did so by going abroad. Xi has traveled more and met with more foreign dignitaries in recent weeks (including in Beijing) than he did in recent years. He has been hither and yon, including Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, promising goodies right and left, while holding firm to his position on key issues such as Taiwan and Russia. Russia’s president in contrast has stayed home. Putin showed his still formidable arsenal of soft power in what the New York Times described as a “marathon of public appearances.” They ranged from a highly publicized drive across the recently damaged bridge that joins Russia to Crimea, to release of a three-hour video of him meeting with his “human rights council,” to him riffing on how zoos in Russia are superior to zoos in the West.
Their performances raise the question of how effective Xi’s return to the international stage will be, and how effective Putin’s to the national one. Will they be able to accomplish what they want and intend? To make people primarily at home but also abroad forget what has gone wrong and remember their personal power and political glory?
I doubt it. Who will quickly forget that Xi’s government and the Chinese Communist Party were recently forced to face the unthinkable? Street protests targeted not only against their zero-covid policy but also against them. And who will quickly forget that Putin’s government along with his military recently launched for no reasonable reason the largest and most devastating land war in Europe since the end of World War II?
No one.