It’s never a good idea. A lightweight taking a swing at a heavyweight? The latter is sure to win! Inevitably he’ll take out his weaker – and dumber – adversary.
This simple law of physics dictates it was brainless of President Donald Trump publicly to challenge President Xi Jinping over tariffs. Setting aside the inevitable competition between China and America, Xi is far stronger than Trump both personally and politically.
Unlike Trump, who early in his life led a sheltered existence, protected against hardship by a demanding but nevertheless stable and wealthy family, Xi’s late childhood and adolescence were traumatic. When he was ten, his father was arrested for political reasons and his family life destroyed. Unlike Trump who was helped by his father to get into the real estate business, and who for most of his life was rich, famous, and amused, Xi’s spectacular political success was exceedingly hard earned. He was able to work his way to the top – not just of the Chinese Communist state but of the all-important Chinese Communist party – because he was a preternaturally smart and skilled, and a ruthless political animal.
Trump is in the first year of his second four-year term as president. Xi – who in 2017 declared himself president for life – became chair of the party in 2012 and president of the country in 2013. At every step he consolidated and grew his power so that now there is not a single aspect of Chinese life that is not dominated by Xi’s politics and personality.
Whatever Trump’s attempts to extend and expand his control, they are, necessarily, feeble in comparison with those of his Chinese counterpart. After all, last I looked the United States remains a democracy while China has never been anything but an autocracy. By this criterion alone, Xi is far, far more dominant than Trump ever was or will be. Which means that Xi can wait Trump out for as long as it takes for him to realize who is the stronger, the more stable and secure.
Until Xi decides it’s in his interest to negotiate with Trump over tariffs or anything else, Trump will be forced to cool his heels. He might huff, puff, and bluff, but the experience will teach him a lesson. Xi is in it to win. No way in hell will Trump triumph over his Chinese counterpart.