I’ve been interested in France’s leader, Emmanuel Macron, for years.* Not long after he became president (in 2017) he ran into political trouble – which is why he has long struck me as emblematic of what ails leadership and followership in Western democracies. Specifically, he’s been an extremely smart and accomplished liberal leader during a time when even the best and brightest are undermined by their liberal followers.
Does he walk on water.? He does not. Macron has his flaws, one of which is he’s off-putting. Much of the French electorate considers him arrogant: they think he thinks himself better than they. Maybe. But has he done right by France? Has Macron done a good job leading the French republic under consistently difficult circumstances? He has.
Until a few weeks ago, Macron was seen as nothing so much as a lame duck, destined to ride out his remaining years in office as unwanted as unloved. But things change. What has changed in this instance is not the leader, Macron. It is the world within which he is president of France. It has shifted so quickly and dramatically that he, who for years was disdained for being arrogant and aloof, is now being hailed as a visionary.
President Donald Trump is threatening the world order – especially the decades-long military, economic, and cultural alliance between the United States and Europe. In consequence, European leaders nearly across the board and, crucially, the French themselves, are changing their tune. They now see that Macron was right all along. Right to warn that Europe should become much more independent of the United States. Right to warn that Europe should develop “strategic autonomy” from the United States. Right to warn that Europe might someday have to defend itself against an aggressive Russia – and that it could not and should not rely on the United States to to take on the task. Macron has been so right about this for so long that now he’s seen as prescient.
Macron may be many things – but dumb is not among them. So, he’s seizing the moment to try to lead a fragmented if not fractured Europe. With Britain still hobbled by Brexit, and Germany weighed down by a chancellor so new he is not yet officially confirmed, Macron is the only leader in Europe positioned to take on the herculean task of bringing order to a continent in disorder. And… of navigating between an extremely aggressive Russian president on the one side and an extremely mercurial American president on the other.
Macron is rising to the challenge, playing the part of organizer, mediator, and pacifier. Whether he will be given leeway to lead is unclear. What is clear is that he cannot be a leader without followers. Unless Europeans acknowledge that there is work to be done, and that work does not get done unless some are willing to lead while others are willing to follow.
The future of the European project is uncertain. But Emmanuel Macron has already proven himself. He has been a good leader. He is ethical as opposed to unethical. And he is effective as opposed to ineffective. It’s that simple.
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*https://barbarakellerman.com/another-leader-cut-down-to-size/
*https://barbarakellerman.com/french-followers-eat-their-young/