Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is now more than three months old. Seems to me the romance of it is over. War is never, of course, romantic. Like all wars the war in Ukraine has been deadly and cruel, destructive and disruptive. Still, the narrative associated with it, has had, as many wars do, an element that was romantic.
The romance in this case was on two levels. First, on a general level Americans especially saw the war as Ukrainians willing to fight to the death for the ideals Americans hold most dear. (At least in theory.) Ideals such as freedom and independence. Second, more specifically Americans have been in love with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. We have embraced the short, cute, onetime comic actor as the greatest wartime leader since Winston Churchill.
To be fair, Zelensky has done a remarkably good job. He has played what certainly seemed a miserably weak hand brilliantly well. Moreover, he has been preternaturally effective not only within Ukraine but without, tailoring his message to his various audiences, convincing people from Israel to Italy that he is a leader for all seasons. And … persuading them that Ukraine, Ukraine alone, is what stands between them and the Russian bear.
In the first couple of months of the war this narrative felt good. It felt especially good because it was buttressed by events on the ground, by Ukraine’s readiness, willingness, and effectiveness at pushing Russian troops away from the capital, Kyiv, back to the eastern front. But now, on the eastern front, things are different. The news out of Ukraine is far grimmer than it was earlier in the war. The Russians are now advancing, and the Ukrainians are now not only retreating but suffering the heavy costs and casualties that all along likely were inevitable. After all, whatever its weaknesses, Russia’s military is among the largest in the world.
Russia expert Stephen Sestanovich is a realist who this week took note of the obvious. “Russia occupies much of Ukraine,” he wrote. Look at a map, he tells us! “Yes, Russia’s armed forces have suffered some major setbacks…. But the territory Russia has [already] seized is roughly four times larger than the two separatist regions it controlled in eastern Ukraine when the war started.” (Italics mine.) Put directly, Russia did badly early in the war and, as a result, it changed course. Now Russia is doing well, quite well, in fact, all the while laying waste to large swaths of eastern Ukraine.
The war has crystallized into a contest between two leaders, Putin and Zelensky. For both it’s figuratively if not literally a fight to the death. Nothing romantic about that.