It does not diminish the accomplishments of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to point out that he is at the mercy of leaders far, far more powerful than he. What Zelensky can do, and cannot do, and what happens, and does not happen to the Ukrainian people, depends largely on three other men whose power and personality dominate the stage on which they stride.
They are the three 800-Pound Gorillas: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, China’s President Xi Jinping, and United States President Joe Biden.
I posted at length about Vladimir Putin in January, when I named him “Leader of the Year.” As I made clear at the time, in 2022 he was the world’s most impactful leader – an 800-pound gorilla who forced others to react to his cruel and brutal attack on a neighbor. Putin led not only his followers, the Russian people, into war. He led other leaders, pushed other leaders, to respond to the war, specifically leaders of countries and companies all over the world who felt they had to react to Putin’s primal aggression. None of this is obviously to say that Putin was a “good” leader. He was not. He certainly was not ethical. Nor was he effective. In fact, in the United States is a cottage industry of Russia-watchers who list his many mistakes and miscalculations. Still, given Putin launched a war of aggression, in the heart of East Europe, and given he remains ruler of a state that has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, when he makes a move attention is paid.
President Xi has perhaps seemed a marginal actor during the year of Putin’s War. But not for a moment did he distance himself from the conflict. To the contrary. Just a few weeks before Russia’s invasion, Putin and Xi signed a sweeping long-term agreement that declared the friendship between their two states “had no limits.” It was a direct and deliberate swipe at the United States and NATO, and at liberal democracy. Though Xi had his hands full during 2022 and into 2023, above all with Covid, he never backed down even an inch either from his alliance with Putin or from his support of Russia in its war against Ukraine. As I write the Biden administration’s concern over China’s alliance with Russia continues. Just a few days ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Beijing that if it provides lethal aid to Russia it will pay a price. Xi though will not easily be cowed. The war in Ukraine is in his interest. It costs the West, and it distracts the West. Therefore, so long as the price he has to pay for its continuation, maybe even for its escalation is not too high, he will continue in some way to meddle.
However awful the war in Europe, and however uncertain still its outcome, history will credit Joe Biden with meeting the moment. With seizing the occasion to reaffirm American values, to reassert American power, and to revive the Western alliance. Biden’s advanced age has some obvious disadvantages. But when Putin invaded Ukraine, Biden’s long history as a public servant, his deep expertise in foreign affairs (he was a longtime member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee), and his considerable knowledge of the Soviet Union and then Russia were to his, to the Ukrainians, and to the West’s great benefit.
Biden first entered the Senate in 1973. It was the height of the Cold War, and Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union. The president has therefore dealt with the Russians directly and indirectly for fifty years! Moreover, Biden has for the moment no overseas Western competition. After the start of Putin’s War, France’s leader Emmanuel Macron tried but so far has failed to get his Russian counterpart to negotiate. Britain’s leader Rishi Sunak is new to the job and remains in consequence inexperienced and untested. And Germany’s leader, Olaf Scholz, has yet to prove he can even begin to fill his predecessor’s (Angela Merkel’s) ample shoes.
So, Biden stands alone – the best 800-pound gorilla, really the only 800-pound gorilla, the West has to offer. But on this issue, on Putin’s War, the American president has proven himself a tough opponent who, though visibly old, is still fit for a fight. A fight against his foreign foes, and a fight if necessary against his domestic ones. President Zelensky is weathering a damnably difficult and dreadful storm. But at least he has President Biden in his corner.