Two days ago, President Donald Trump delivered a primetime speech during which he focused on the integrity of American elections. Though he reiterated his usual longstanding grievances, many pundits concluded that Trump’s talk was less about the past and more about the future. The president’s speech was broadly seen as an attempt to prepare the American people for the upcoming November election. To prepare them for an election that he might claim was rigged and that would, therefore, justify federal intervention on constitutionally designated state terrain.
Congressional Democrats reacted strongly to Trump’s speech. Connecticut Representative Jim Himes said that the president’s claim to have evidence of widespread voter fraud was a “baldfaced, 180 degree obviously provable lie.” Georgia’s Senator Jon Ossoff accused Trump of “clearly signaling his intent to attack the elections and to undermine voters’ rights.”
The point of this post is not to prognosticate. I have no idea what Trump will and will not do if voters rebuke him in November. What I will, however, suggest is that to make meaning out of what’s happening between now and the end of the year you keep your eye less on the leader and more on his followers – especially on his loyalists. What will they do if the president’s behavior is increasingly outside the mainstream; increasingly beyond traditional norms; increasingly flaunting the letter of the law; and increasingly personally and politically erratic?
Here is a list of those to watch most closely.
- Congressional Republicans.
- Elected Republicans at the state and local levels.
- Members of the executive branch.
- Major Republican donors.
- Major Republican media.
- Key leaders in the private sector.
- Key celebrities and influencers.
- The MAGA middle.
It is not the leader who will determine the fate of the nation. It is his followers.