When a leader with great power says something, followers should listen. When the leader with great power is evil, followers should listen carefully.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is a leader with great power who, by my definition, is evil. Specifically, he readily inflicts pain on large numbers of others, both psychological and physical.
He is also a leader who trumpets what he does – in advance. He does so in deed and in word. Putin’s War, his invasion of Ukraine, was heralded by a whole host of assaults, initiatives over a period of at least 15 years that by any measure were aggressive. So, if the West was surprised when he invaded Ukraine, it wasn’t paying attention.
Similarly, what Putin says. He has not been shy about hiding his intentions or illusions, which is precisely why what he said last week should be seen as a threat. Yet another shot across the bow.
At a recent event commemorating the 350th anniversary of the birth of Peter the Great, Putin compared himself to the legendary Russian czar, who was known for, among other things, his relentless expansion of the Russian empire. “What was [Peter] doing during the Great Northern War?” Putin asked aloud. “He was taking back and reinforcing. That’s what he did. And it looks like it fell on us to take back and reinforce as well.” (Peter’s land grab was from Sweden; the Great Northern War went on for 21 years.)
Putin has long-lionized Peter, who ruled Russia from 1682 to 1725. (He keeps a bronze statue of Peter over his desk in the Kremlin’s cabinet room.) Trouble is that Putin idolizes only part of Peter. The Peter that is the warmonger and territorial aggrandizer. He has no interest in the other part of Peter, that is, the Peter who was great because he was as interested in culture, education, and religion as in aggression. The Peter who leaned toward Europe, not away from it. Putin, in short, admires only those parts of Peter that to the West are the least attractive, most offensive, and most dangerous.
By most measures, the West, NATO, has been helpful to Ukraine as it has tried, valiantly, to fight Russian aggression. But, by most measures, the West, NATO, has not been very helpful to Ukraine – certainly not as helpful as it could be. It has taken several measures off the table (for example, sending in ground troops). Its delivery of weapons and weapons systems to the beleaguered nation has been relatively niggardly and notably sluggish. And sanctions have had some effect, but not nearly enough in large part because of Europe’s (and India’s, and China’s) continuing demand for gas and oil.
Whatever happens in Ukraine, to Ukraine, the West has been forewarned. By comparing himself to Peter the Great, Vladimir the Great has made unambiguously clear that he is prepared to fight to the finish. Ukraine will lose this war, Europe will lose this war, the West will lose this war, unless it reads Putin loud and clear. Which is to say unless it decides it will do what it takes to defeat this latest in the line of Russian czars.