A counterfactual is something that did not happen. Counterfactuals are, then, intellectual exercises. We ask ourselves what would have happened if, for example, a leader had done this instead of that, chosen to go left as opposed to right.
So, here’s today’s counterfactual: What if Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy had chosen to tell the truth? I refer not to the truth of the last week, but to the truth of the month before.
Fact is that in the weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine U.S. Intelligence warned, repeatedly, that Russian President Putin was almost certain to pull the trigger. Almost certain to give his military the go ahead to invade Ukraine and then to occupy it as long as necessary to get its government to heel. The Biden administration was not able to pinpoint when precisely the invasion would take place. But it did suggest, again, repeatedly, that, in deference to China, it would not happen until after the Olympics were over. Which is, of course, precisely what occurred.
The Europeans generally were skeptical of the American warnings. But it’s one thing to be skeptical if you’re the leader of Germany or Italy, Belgium, or Spain. It’s quite another to be skeptical if you’re the leader of Ukraine – of the country reportedly under Damocles’ sword.
In the runup to the invasion Zelenskyy did not level with his people. He did not warn them this could possibly happen, not to speak of probably happen. Either because he did not believe Russia would invade, or because he thought it best to keep it to himself, instead of issuing warnings he accused the U.S. and the press of threatening to create panic by referring to the Russians as coming. Rather than say this time could well be different, he reminded Ukrainians they had lived with the threat of Russian aggression for years.
What if Zelenskyy had done otherwise? What if instead of playing down the danger of war he would more readily have said – publicly – that the worst-case scenario might come to pass? Would the Ukrainians have been more prepared? Militarily, psychologically, personally, and practically?
I’m not arguing there are right answers to questions like these. The Ukrainian leader was, obviously, ensnared in a situation with no good options. Still, fact is that though in the week after the invasion Zelenskyy has properly been called a hero, in the month before his judgment is open to question.