For at least the last 8 years I have talked and written about leaders and followers and the trajectory of history. Put briefly: leaders in liberal democracies are getting weaker, more feckless; while followers in liberal democracies are getting stronger, more restless.
When I say this to a group, someone in the audience invariably asks, “Where does all this end?” “If followers continue to have more power and leaders less, what does this suggest for good governance?” I reply honestly, which is to admit that I don’t rightly know. I do though add that to look closely and carefully at the world in which we live is to get a few clues. Here just seven – all in the last few days.
- In Chile were days of violent demonstrations by students protesting an increase in subway fares. In response, Chilean President Sebastian Pinera announced the raise would be repealed.
- Hong Kong, already the site of some 20 weeks of persistent protests, had another round. Despite being banned by the authorities from demonstrating, many thousands of black-clad activists again took to the streets, proving one more time their refusal to retreat.
- Some estimates were that more than a million people marched yesterday in London, in opposition to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, agitating instead for a second referendum on Britain’s decision to exit the European Union.
- In Lebanon tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest tax increases and government corruption. Within days cracks began to appear in the governing coalition – one of the coalition parties has already pulled out.
- After a group of Catalan separatists received long prison sentences, peaceful marches, a general strike, and violent unrest “convulsed” Catalonia’s capital city, Barcelona, in northeastern Spain.
- Demonstrations in Ecuador against President Lenin Moreno’s proposed cuts to fuel subsidies were so violent and wide-ranging that he was forced temporarily to relocate his government outside the capital, Quito. In short order, Moreno, like his Chilean counterpart, Pinera, reversed his decision.
- In Chicago, the U.S.’s third largest school system, some 32,000 teachers and support staff went on strike, cancelling classes for about 320,000 students. At this writing negotiations are still taking place, though a strike-ending agreement has not yet been reached.
I offer the following: 1)With as much talent, expertise and ingenuity across the world, I’d be curious if anyone is actually connecting the dots, so to speak of all this change, more so than asking the question, where does this end.
2) With respect to the followers, if they are getting stronger are future leaders evolving out/from these protestors; is there a figure that wants to stand in the shoes of the leader, and really move things forward? 3) I’d also be interested with all this change and data available could technology be used to forecast the next phase, or major Tipping Point (taking into account previous changes-protest like the Arab Spring). As you’ve captured it, I concur with the trajectory of history. I’d hope in this case there are lessons to be learned to prepare for a better future across the world.